New Dimensions of Belly Politics: Escalating Food Prices, Riots and Rising Insecurity
By: Monique Theron (1)
“Politics of the Belly” has taken on a literal dimension in recent months. Escalating food and fuel prices have caused worldwide concerns and are affecting all dimensions of human security, especially in developing countries and regions plagued by insecurity and political instability.
The past few months have seen wide-spread social unrest, protests, riots and strikes by populations and trade unions all over the world. During March and April this year, West African countries such as Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea and Senegal experienced large scale demonstrations of civil discontent, which in several cases led to violence, mass arrests and even deaths. Other countries that saw similar protests over rising food prices include Egypt, Morocco, Mauritania, Ethiopia, Madagascar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Mali, Niger, Mozambique, and South Africa. On a global level, the Food and Agriculture Organisation has announced that thirty-seven countries currently face food crises.
Focusing regionally, the Executive Director of the World Food Programme (WFP), Josette Sheeran, has warned that West Africa faces a “perfect storm” crisis and a “silent tsunami” of hunger, having to deal simultaneously with climate change, rising food prices and population growth. Worldwide, the President of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, warns that escalating food prices could drive an additional 100 million people into poverty.
From a pricing perspective, world food prices across the board have doubled since 2004. Analysts estimate that in the past year alone, wheat prices have risen by 130%, while soy and rice have become 87% and 75% more expensive respectively. Common basic food product bread has seen a 100% price increase in some cities since last year.
These rapid increases in food costs coupled with a resultant scarcity has led certain analysts to predict that the situation could continue for the next two to three years and worsen matters in already politically fragile states. In Cote d’Ivoire, for example, thousands of protestors recently took to the streets in Abidjan. Police shot live bullets into the crowd, killing one woman. After two days of widespread protests, Ivorian President Gbagbo was forced to implement measures to try and curb the price of basic foodstuffs.
Human rights groups report that in Cameroon more than a hundred people died in violent protests triggered by rising prices. Pre-empting a similar situation, the Government of Guinea was forced to take measures to combat the price increases when it announced on 16 April that it is banning the export of all types of foodstuffs, oil and timber. Other governments have removed import duties and taxes on basic foodstuffs.
MULTIPLE-CAUSES
The current rise in food prices can be attributed to a combination of factors. The most common stated causes are climate change, increased drought, desertification, changing rainfall patterns and the increasing occurrence of flooding of agricultural land. A recent argument launched is the decrease in food producing farmland in favour of the production of biofuels. Furthermore, Africa’s poor agricultural infrastructure and lack of investment in the area should be seen in conjunction with these latest issues.
Some have also attributed the worsening food crisis to speculators who are putting their funds into food commodities. This trading pattern further increases the price and potential profits based on speculative buying. Others still attribute the price changes to a growing global population.
DIMENSIONS AND CONSEQUENCES
High food prices affect all dimensions of human security, political stability, governance, election agendas and peacekeeping efforts. The relief efforts of food aid agencies such as the WFP are also negatively affected by the rise in food prices. The Programme currently feeds 73 million people in 78 different countries and is now having difficulties to procure supplies, since several countries have introduced limits on food exports. In addition to food supplies, aid agencies have also experienced increased operational costs, due to high fuel prices which affect transport costs. As of end-April, the WFP has indicated that it will need an extra US$ 500 million for emergency food aid – a figure likely to rise significantly in the near future.
Governments are already under pressure to adjust food prices, remove value added tax on basic food stuffs, increase subsidies to the poor and take measures such as nationalising food production and banning the export of agricultural and petroleum products – all of which will affect countries’ economic performance and functioning. Raising food subsidies, for example, put countries at risk of unbalancing their budgets. Blocking exports in an attempt to keep local prices under control could also be a disincentive for farmers to increase production, since they would no longer benefit from high global prices. Enforcing such measures such as tax reduction on imported goods are also costly to implement and monitor.
Another developmental knock-on effect of price inflation is seen when families in poor countries take their children out of school in order to work to supplement income so that they can buy food. It also affects feeding programmes at schools, increases malnutrition and affects the health and general development of children. All of these effects caused by the global food crisis affect progress being made towards achieving most or all of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In April, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon warned that the escalating food crisis has reached “emergency proportions” and that it could eliminate seven years of progress made in the fight against poverty. The riots and political discontent in countries affected most by the food crisis could also raise investment risks and affect progress made by emerging markets and negatively affect countries exiting from conflict.
REACTIONS
This new wave of rapidly increasing food prices has received significant attention in the media and global stage. On 15 April the UN called for urgent intergovernmental action and farming reforms to address the global food crisis. Meanwhile World Bank President Robert Zoellick has announced a “New Deal on Global Food Policy”, under which the Bank will double its agricultural lending to Africa to reach US$ 800 million during the next year.
At the crux of the matter though is the need to adopt urgent paradigm shifts in order to altar the way the international community considers food security. Whether this is through factors such as adopting a more equitable system vis-à-vis farming subsidies or re-examining aspects such as the growing of genetically modified crops, one thing is certain - prevention is certainly better than cure. The time to act is thus now and as has been evidenced in past comparable scarcity situations, this latest crises is fast approaching critical level.
(1) Monique Theron is a Great Lakes/Central Africa & West Africa Researcher in Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Africa Watch Unit. She is also a lecturer in the Department of Political Sciences, University of South Africa (officesa@consultancyafrica.com).
Subscribe to our Newsletter Today
| Attachment | Size |
|---|---|
| Consultancy Africa Intelligence - Africa Watch Newsletter - May 2008.pdf | 100.94 KB |