Climate change has recently shifted from being a purely environmental concern to being a threat to security, economic growth and prosperity, and therefore requiring the attention of all sectors of any Government. The effects of climate change are no longer limited to predictions, but are currently being experienced - temperatures are rising, icecaps and glaciers are melting and extreme weather conditions are becoming more frequent and more intense. For Southern Africa, sub-continental warming is predicted to be greatest in the northern regions. Temperature increases in the range of between 10 and 30 degrees Celsius can be expected by the mid 21st century, with the highest rises in the most arid parts of the country.

The economic prospects of coastal zones, home to about one-fifth of the world’s population, face a serious threat from the rise in sea-level and the increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. A one metre rise in sea-level would bring about extensive flooding in the Nile Delta, as well as damage to other coastal cities and ports. At this rate of sea-level rise, the cost of adaptation could amount to at least 5% - 10% of gross domestic product (GDP)(1) and would eventually lead to much greater damage to coastal regions, city and transport infrastructure.

Climate change, including extreme events such as storms, floods and sustained droughts, is already having an impact on settlements and infrastructure in Africa, especially in coastal regions. Three of the five global regions most at risk of flooding are located in Africa: in the Nile delta of North Africa, in the long coastal belt along the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa, and at the large cities of Maputo, Beira and Cape Town in Southern Africa. The UN has also predicted that there will be millions of ‘environmental’ migrants by 2020 with climate change as one of the major drivers of this phenomenon. Those parts of the population that already suffer from poor health conditions, unemployment or social exclusion are rendered more vulnerable to the effects of climate change which could amplify or trigger migration within and between countries.

A further issue which could arise is the potential conflict over resources such as energy supply. Instability in this already volatile sector is likely to increase due to much of the world’s hydrocarbon reserves being situated in regions vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Considering these challenges and real threats, this month’s Africa Watch newsletter examines the impact of climate change in Southern Africa and looks at how governments are approaching mitigation and adaptation measures in the region.

Africa - A continent most at risk

Africa is both the continent most vulnerable to climate change as well as the one with the least capacity to adapt. As a developing continent, there exists multiple and concurrent stresses and development challenges, such as endemic poverty, governance and institutional dimensions, limited access to capital, ecosystem degradation, and complex disasters and conflicts - all factors which make meeting the challenges of environmental change difficult. In Southern Africa, droughts are contributing to poor harvests and food insecurity in several countries, with the resultant affect of millions of people expected to face food shortages. In the central parts of the region, annual mean rainfall has been steadily decreasing, agricultural output falling, water stresses rising - all largely as a result of climate change.

Globally, discourse has focussed on two broad levels of response to climate change. The first, mitigation, involves reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to slow or stop climate change. The second, adaptation, is learning to cope with the impacts of climate change.

It has been estimated that developed countries contribute 87% of the global gas emissions while African countries only account for 3% of emissions - with South Africa and Nigeria being the highest emitters on the continent (collectively contributing fourth-fifths of this). South Africa’s heavy dependence on coal for power generation has pushed it into a similar class as many developed countries, contributing 45% of Africa’s emissions, while Nigeria’s contribution has largely been as a result of gas in the country.

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which 12 Southern African countries have ratified thus far, is the centrepiece for global efforts to combat global warming. The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to stabilise "greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" . Further to the UNFCCC is the Kyoto Protocol which quantifies emission limitations and reduction commitments to achieve a cut in emissions of greenhouse gases. Within the Protocol, “Annex 1 countries” (i.e. developed states) are to cut to their emission levels to an average 5% below those recorded in 1990. This reduction is expected to occur in the period 2008 to 2012.

As mentioned, African economies have contributed very little to global carbon stocks, and therefore have no obligation to cut back emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Nevertheless, in the future, African countries would do well to utilise the current political juncture to gain technical and financial support for developing along a low carbon investment pathway. The Kyoto Protocol also established a clean development mechanism (CDM) to encourage joint emission reduction projects between developed and developing countries. These policy instruments were designed to provide flexibility and reduce the cost of compliance. The CDM was developed to assist industrialised countries to meet their emission limitations and reduction commitments, whilst aiding developing countries in terms of development. The CDM is critical to Africa and can be seen as one of the solutions to the problem of adopting low carbon emission technology and renewable energy.

Renewable energies

Renewable energy technologies could, by 2050, meet at least half of Southern Africa’s energy needs at a lower cost than the current 'business as usual' approach of coal-based supply options. Given the demand for massive investment in new energy infrastructure in the region, it is opportune to choose investment courses which will deliver cleaner low-carbon energy and more predictable energy service costs.

Renewable energies can also be used to enhance Africa’s climate change adaptive capacity. Such capacity refers to the design and implementation of effective adaptation strategies, the ability to respond to evolving hazards and stresses, and reduce harmful outcomes, learning from past experiences and applying lessons to current and future climates. At the national level, adaptation plans and strategies need to be firmly integrated into central government policy and budget management through several avenues, such as: national development plans and priorities; Millennium Development Goal (MDG) strategies; the ratification of Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs); and poverty reduction strategy papers (PRSPs).

Currently, not many Southern African countries have binding policy documents dedicated to combating climate change, although projects dedicated to formulating policies do exist. In Malawi, the Climate Adaptation for Rural Livelihoods and Agriculture project aims to increase resilience through adaptation strategies, policies, measures and investments that will improve agricultural production and rural livelihoods. Similarly, a regional project implemented by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) exists in the Eastern and Southern African regions to integrate vulnerability and adaptation to climate change into Sustainable Development Policy Planning and Implementation in countries such as Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania. In South Africa, the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT) has developed a national climate change response strategy with the objective of supporting the policies and principles laid out in the Government’s White Paper on Integrated Pollution and Waste Management, as well as other national policies including those relating to energy, agriculture and water. The point of departure reflected in this strategy is the achievement of national and sustainable development objectives, whilst simultaneously responding to climate change. Madagascar has also completed its national plan of action for adapting to climate change with several actors and decision-makers involved in the implementation of the plan. Unfortunately, the spatial dimension of vulnerability to climate change is not properly reflected in the plan, and the country lacks the information, tools and skills to set priorities.

On a broader level, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) has structured an action plan for the environment over a long-term approach, involving processes, projects and related activities that are aimed at enlarging Africa’s economic prospects through sustainable environmental management. The action plan is comprehensive and takes full account of economic growth, income distribution, poverty eradication, social equity and better governance as integral parts of Africa’s environmental sustainability agenda. However, a joint UNEP and African Ministerial Conference on the Environment (AMCEN) report, UNEP/AMCEN/12/4 (June 2006-May 2008) indicates that implementation of the action plan remains a formidable challenge.

Policy implications and recommendations

The UN estimates that all but one of its emergency appeals for humanitarian aid in 2007 were climate-related and in the same year, the UN Security Council held its first debate on climate change and its implications for international security. Clearly, the problem is not going away and there is an increasing need for countries to begin to intensify adaptation methods and policies.

The definitive intention of climate adaptation is to protect vulnerable populations, economies and infrastructure. Within Africa, and indeed globally, achieving this requires rapidly developing capacity in existing organisations and learning from an extensive network of pilot actions. From an agricultural production stance, Southern Africa is increasingly being affected by climate change due to shifts in rainfall patterns and temperature zones. An assessment of the factors influencing farm-level adaptation can facilitate the formation of policies and strategies to moderate the adverse consequences of climate change. Providing smallholder farmers with the necessary resources increases farmers’ productivity and helps them adapt to adverse consequences of changing climatic conditions. For instance, policies that ensure access to affordable credit, increases farmers’ financial resources and allows them to make better use of available information on climate change whilst meeting the costs associated with various adaptation options.

Adaptation at the local level should also not be ignored - strengthening local coping strategies, community institutions and indigenous strategies are essential mechanisms in moving forward. At the national stage, climate change should be mainstreamed into all areas of government sectoral policy - energy, water, agriculture, finance, trade, health, and education. National Adaptation Plans should also be drawn up in order to assess new infrastructure and ensure disaster preparedness. Legal frameworks which strengthen community land systems and natural resource management should also be drafted and promoted. This should then be echoed at the regional level through the Southern African Development Community (SADC), where experiences and ideas should be shared and management systems drawn-up for transboundary resources. Lastly, adaptation efforts should also occur at the continental level through institutions such as the African Union where Heads of State should meet regularly to incorporate climate change into initiatives and to establish partnerships with international organisations on climate change challenges such as the World Economic Forum.

NOTES:

(1) IPCC 4th Assessment, 2007

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