The most recent session of the World Trade Organisation’s Doha Round of talks came to an abrupt end on 29 July 2008 after nine days of the mini-ministerial meeting. Comprising over 30 countries, the trade negotiations centred on the Group of Seven (United States, the European Union, Japan , Australia, Brazil, China and India) who were attempting to bridge seven years of negotiations to arrive at the much anticipated end to the Doha Round of talks. This goal however was not realised as talks collapsed over the issue of the special safeguard mechanism (SSM) espoused by China and India with the backing of many of the world’s developing nations. Observers were optimistic that this round of talks would prove successful, and in fact they were, in that, according to WTO Director General Pascal Lamy, agreements had been reached on 18 issues out of a list of 20. Unfortunately however, the impasses could not be resolved over the establishment of a mechanism of special safeguards that would ultimately enable developing countries to raise tariffs on farm imports when they exceeded a threshold and had the possibility to impact the livelihoods of local farmers.

The SSM was designed to address import surges in farm products to protect domestic agriculture. China and India, backed by many developing countries including the African block of nations were seeking a marginally low trigger of 115% to implement the SSM. Under the proposal countries that experience a 115% increase in agricultural imports could place a 25% duty on those imports. US Trade Representative Susan Schwab blocked the measure by not accepting the proposed figure, instead focusing on a 140% rise in imports over the average of the preceding three year period before the SSM can be invoked. The stalemate resulted in the collapse of the agreement. The US argued that opening markets was the best way to achieve food security and to promote the livelihoods of the rural poor whereas China and India argued for SSMs in the event of major disruptions to agricultural markets.

The failure of this G7 to reach a consensus over the SSM issue was precursor to potential stalemates over the remaining issues of non-agricultural market access (NAMA) negotiations as well as the contentious issue of cotton subsidies. Consequently, this round of Doha Talks has come and gone with issues of contention still on the table. Perhaps the most interesting development arising however from the Geneva talks is that of the rise of China’s voice in trade negotiations.

Historically, China has taken a passive role within trade negotiations, preferring to sit on the sidelines noticeably silent. The Geneva round has changed that. China’s engagement immediately made a big difference, shifting the balance of power within negotiations and ultimately affecting their outcome. China chose to back India’s position on the SSM issue, sacrificing economic interests in favour of solidifying political ties with the large block of developing countries, notably the African block of nations. China’s emergence in the WTO has afforded developing nations a powerful ally in the drive towards securing equitable trade negotiations. With the combined strength of India, the developing world will have more of a voice and opportunity to yield results from WTO negotiations. Conversely, China can gain much from aligning with the developing world, not within matters of trade as such, but within political soft power. Ultimately, the failure of the talks affords China the ability to continue to further trade negotiations with African countries outside of the WTO forum. Increasingly, China has pursued bilateral trade agreements with African countries and has been very active in developing economic ties with the African continent. China is focusing expanding its future growth outside of US and European markets, giving it less incentive to participate in WTO negotiations that are still dominated by the OECD.

The fact of the matter is that China is aggressively aligning its interests with those of the developing world, particularly the African continent in a concerted move to strengthen its soft power. China’s engagement within Africa has become increasingly dependent on strong economic and political ties with African nations. These linkages are affording China the opportunity to access valuable resources and markets to further its own rapid development and growth. Fundamentally, China is dependent on strong economic and political ties with African states, of which solidarity in international forums goes a long way towards solidifying these relationships. In hindsight, the collapse of the recent Doha Round of WTO negotiations was perhaps not a surprise to close observers. However, China’s emergence as a formidable power within the negotiations was and, lends one to wonder what effect China will have during future WTO negotiations?

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