A Terrorist Revolution: Algeria under Attack
Algeria is facing a renewed onslaught by terrorists who are clearly seeking to overthrow virtually all segments of society in order to destabilise the state to finally unseat the Algerian Government.
The Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) aligned itself with Osama bin Laden in September 2006 and in January 2007 assumed a new name to reflect its new regional (and potential global) reach - Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).
The new and more lethal entity is striking at the core of the defender of state authority - the country’s security and military apparatus and several other key targets. This has been pulled off with devastating consequences, through increasingly eroding national security which has been fragile since the 1990s.
The start of 2008 has seen a worrying increase in the number of attacks. Suspected Islamist rebels killed five soldiers in an ambush on a military convoy east of Algiers in early January 2008, while a car-bomb attack on a police station killed two people and wounded 23 in a town east of the capital at the end of January 2008.
From African Renaissance to African Ruin - The devastating (and lasting) implications of the xenophobic attacks on South Africa
The devastating xenophobic attacks that rocked South Africa in May 2008 have betrayed serious flaws in post-1994 and especially post-1999 South Africa and holds potentially grave threats and challenges for South Africa beyond 2009.
The attacks that were unleashed on Alexandra township spread rapidly to large parts of Johannesburg’s townships and as far a field as Cape Town and has undoubtedly created a state of emergency, where between 50,000 and 100,000 people have been displaced. Over 60 people succumbed to the brutal and vicious attacks that were carried out by mobs of angry residents, while nearly 670 people were injured.
The gravest casualty in the aftermath of the xenophobic attacks is the present ruling-ANC Government’s inability to ensure safety, security and political stability. The xenophobic attacks also revealed various critical Government Departments’ total incompetence to respond to serious emergency situations that arguably has serious effects on the country’s overall national security.
The Government’s response has been largely focused on damage control and the country’s security and intelligence services share much of the blame in not providing timely, effective and actionable intelligence in pre-empting the crisis situation that has been fomenting for many years now. Ample reports had been produced by various reputable research organisations sounding ominous warnings of simmering tensions and the potential of violence. Regrettably many more will be produced, including yet another violent chapter.
From Climate Change to Climate Rage: Africa’s New Security Threat
While terrorism has occupied much of the international security agenda over the past seven years, a major threat has been simmering beneath, looming ominously in the background, quite literally with vast repercussions and global implications. Climate change has arguably become one of the gravest environmental challenges facing the international community. Yet of greater concern are the unintended (yet surely expected) consequences that are now emerging as a result thereof. Climate change has entered the realm of insecurity that is likely to grip nations across the globe, but more devastatingly so in Africa. Of greatest concern is the emergence of climate rage - the result of nations growing increasingly restless, threatened by the devastating effects of climate change and facing the prospects of having to fight for survival on a planet that is increasingly coming to resemble one vast pressure cooker.
From Rhetoric to Rapid Reaction: The Consequences of the AU Intervention in the Comoros - April: 2008
On 25 March, the Indian Ocean archipelago nation of the Comoros announced that it had captured the capital and airport of the rebel island of Anjouan in an African Union-backed seaborne assault. With 1,350 AU troops in support, the national government hopes to quickly topple Anjouan's local leader, French-trained former gendarme Mohamed Bacar, who has clung to power since an illegal election last year and commands a militia of several hundred. Analysts say the AU may be hoping to score a relatively easy victory in Anjouan - whose population is just 300,000 - to earn some international prestige to offset the struggles of its peacekeeping missions in Sudan and Somalia. This is perhaps the most significant act by the AU since its inception in 2002 and could possibly signal a greater willingness to intervene in those African countries where political instability, violence and renegade leaders and regimes threaten long-term peace and security. The intervention and its possible aftermath will likely lead to greater debate and attention being focused on the common defence and security policy that the AU has attempted to craft in response to dealing with mutual threats to peace and security.
The Chadian Crisis: Fomenting a New Regional Catastrophe? - March: 2008
The crisis in Chad continues to threaten peace in the volatile region that has already been plagued by brutal violence and excessive conflict as a result of the Darfur crisis and Chad’s own internal instability. Despite various attempts to secure a peaceful and negotiated solution to the crisis, little headway has been made. Since early 2000, armed opposition movements have waged low-intensity warfare against the Chadian government. In 2004 President Idriss Deby altered the Chadian constitution, removing the presidential two-term limit, thus enabling him to be re-elected for a third term in 2006. On 31 January 2008, armed opposition groups launched a major offensive on the capital N'Djamena. Heavy fighting lasted three days. Hundreds of civilian casualties have been reported and thousands of people fled to neighbouring Cameroon. On 14 February, President Deby declared a state of emergency all over the country. This state of emergency gives the governors of provinces the power to take measures to restrict freedom of movement and assembly, to control private and state press and radio media, and to impose a curfew. The closest the rebels had previously come to seizing control of the capital and the country was in April 2006.
Conflict Prevention and Peace in Peril - The Futile Nature of Africa’s wars - November: 2007
Horn of Africa enemies Ethiopia and Eritrea may return to war over their disputed border in a matter of weeks if there is no major international effort to prevent the outbreak of a potentially devastating regional conflict, an influential think tank warned at the start of November 2007. A 1998 to 2000 war on the boundary killed 70,000 people and brought untold hardship to two of the world's poorest nations. Now analysts are warning of a repeat as troops build up ahead of a deadline at the end of November by an independent boundary commission for Ethiopia and Eritrea to mark out their border. "The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real," the International Crisis Group (ICG) warned in a report on the growing crisis. "A military build-up along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart - more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis." The threat of yet another potentially devastating conflict in Africa comes as no surprise, as the continent has been beset by violence for many decades now. Yet what is of greater concern is the relative inability to address and to effectively prevent the outbreak of conflict in Africa. In this respect reflections on the actual success of peace agreements in Africa, that are painstakingly negotiated in order to provide for tangible and visible progress towards sustainable peace has proven rather disappointing and provides ominous warning signs to those tasked with the prevention of conflict.
The African Standby Force: Ready, Willing, but Able? - October: 2007
Ten African Union (AU) soldiers were killed and 50 were missing after armed men launched an assault on an AU base in Darfur, the worst attack on AU troops since they deployed in Sudan's violent west in 2004. The attack had taken the AU forces by complete shock and surprise and has undoubtedly dealt a severe blow to the mission in Darfur and to the overall morale of the AU troops operating under extreme and difficult circumstances in this region. This has placed heavy strain amidst the visit by The Elders consisting of South African Archbishop Desmond Tutu, former US president Jimmy Carter, human rights activist Graça Machel, and peace mediation veteran Lakhdar Brahimi, accompanied by British businessman Richard Branson that are scheduled to visit Darfur and the southern capital Juba. A joint UN-AU peacekeeping force with 26,000 police and soldiers is due to deploy next year to absorb the AU's 7,000 peacekeepers who, lacking equipment and experience, have struggled to defend even themselves against attack as this incident has brutally shown. This raises potentially grave implications for the creation of the African Standby Force (ASF) and whether this arrangement will be able to make an impact in addressing Africa’s conflicts successfully.
Constructing a new Peace and Security Architecture to Combat Terrorism in Africa-Lessons from Singapore - September: 2007
The former UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, in his 2006 report “Uniting Against Terrorism: Recommendations for a Global Counter-terror Strategy” stressed the importance on the need for the creation of an operational strategy that would enable member states to work together to counter terrorism. Another salient aspect addressed within the report is that any comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy must include a component addressing conditions conducive to exploitation by terrorists to create or increase their power base. The report furthermore cites that many terrorist groups have emerged in the context of local or regional violent conflicts, some of which serve as a rallying cry for terrorist organisations in such regions. Prolonged unresolved conflicts in particular often create conditions conducive to exploitation by terrorists and as such must not be allowed to fester, however intractable they might seem. The end of the Cold War led to many of its proxy wars in Africa coming to an end. The security vacuum left in its wake was filled with a new phenomenon of small-scale civil wars that have caused more casualties on the African continent over the last two decades than anywhere else on earth. Conflict in Africa has not only caused the death of millions of innocent civilians, it has also displaced, maimed and traumatised many millions more, which in turn has contributed to further distrust, suspicion, hate and division in the process. These conflicts have disrupted Africa’s already fragile post-colonial, socio-cultural, political and economic systems. Africa’s wars and the deep sense of insecurity as a result have been characterised to a large extent by the involvement of a multiplicity and diversity of military and non-military actors, namely Government military formations, rebels, insurgents, private militias, warlords, criminal gangs, mercenaries, child soldiers and a plethora of other external actors who exert some or other form of influence (both positive and negative) in conflict situations in a particular country. In addition these actors are often embedded in highly complex ‘war networks’ (or what can be described as a ‘regional conflict complex’), that straddle territorial boundaries, identity and ethnic groups. The notion of purely civil or internal wars is no longer sustainable; most African wars are actually regional conflict formations, with added global connections and influences.
Pitfalls and Panaceas of the Pentagon's New Africa Command
As the African continent awaits the establishment of the Pentagon’s new Africa Command (AFRICOM), a mixture of views abound: anticipation, trepidation, suspicion, scepticism and condemnation. These are likely to be only a few of the views that will emerge as the United States prepares to launch operations as part of AFRICOM. According to a senior Defence Department official, Ryan Henry, the new Defence Department command in Africa, AFRICOM will be unique in its mission and command structure. Henry, the principal Defence Department Under-Secretary for Policy briefed reporters on 21 and 22 June 2007 stating that the US was consulting extensively with African nations and other allies as planning for the new command continues. Meanwhile President George W. Bush has named Army Gen. William E. “Kip” Ward as AFRICOM’s first commander when it becomes operational in late-2008. Henry also stated that the main goal of the new US command in Africa will be to develop a stable environment on the continent to promote civil society and improved quality of life for the people. He also noted that Africa, which represents 35% of the world’s land mass and 25% of the population, is growing in significance, and the US has realised that it is time to recognise its importance and consolidate efforts there. Up to now, US military involvement in Africa has been shared among the US European Command, the US Central Command and the US Pacific Command. During the Pentagon news conference, In addition, AFRICOM will have a strong emphasis on building the capacity of African nations through training and equipping African militaries, conducting training and medical missions on the continent, and supporting regional organisations like the African Union (AU). The motivation behind creating AFRICOM was the increasing importance of Africa strategically, diplomatically and economically, Navy Rear Adm. Robert Moeller, Executive Director of the US Africa Command implementation planning team, said in an interview. Henry furthermore said AFRICOM will emphasise humanitarian assistance, civic action, military professionalism, border and maritime security assistance, and response to natural disasters. While AFRICOM is being presented as a panacea for a wide array of woes plaguing the African continent a number of pitfalls are already emerging in the run-up to the establishment of this idealistic command initiative. Predictably the proposed US initiative is not being welcomed with open arms by many African states, wary of being too closely aligned with Washington. Analysts suggest that the cool response reflects African Governments' fears of becoming targets for terrorism should they agree to host the new Africa command. The countries visited by Pentagon officials are also thought to have expressed misgivings about the political implications of the US initiative, which was seen as potentially undercutting the AU's efforts to develop its own security capabilities.
Africa - There is no way to peace, peace is the way
A number of important reports and indexes relating to issues of conflict, peace and security in the world have seen the light in the past few months. These have proven to be particularly instruments in assessing the state of the world’s overall stability and instability in an attempt to extrapolate trends, predict future developments and identify potential future sources of instability as well as potential conflict hotspots. Conflict and war zones have lead to grave humanitarian crises and the displacement of millions of people, as well as adversely affected investment across the continent. As has been witnessed, conflicts have caused major disruptions in economic activity and destroyed critical infrastructure; most importantly however they severely undermine investor confidence. This has increasingly been seen as many international companies grow wary of entering countries beset by violence, war and where Governments struggle to reconstitute state authority and control. In this respect a number of interesting reports have recently been released, ranking countries on a number of indicators such as stability, peace, security, respect for human rights and socio-economic factors. These indicators have provided a valuable oversight and insight into the overall status of peace and security-particularly on the African continent. However, the indicators and reports continue to paint a sobering and worrying picture of the continent’s future.