Conflict and war zones have lead to grave humanitarian crises and the displacement of millions of people, as well as adversely affected investment across the continent. As has been witnessed, conflicts have caused major disruptions in economic activity and destroyed critical infrastructure; most importantly however they severely undermine investor confidence. This has increasingly been seen as many international companies grow wary of entering countries beset by violence, war and where Governments struggle to reconstitute state authority and control.
In this respect a number of interesting reports have recently been released, ranking countries on a number of indicators such as stability, peace, security, respect for human rights and socio-economic factors. These indicators have provided a valuable oversight and insight into the overall status of peace and security-particularly on the African continent. However, the indicators and reports continue to paint a sobering and worrying picture of the continent’s future.
The Global Peace Index, produced by Steve Killelea, in conjunction with an international team of academics, key business and peace institutions has initiated the Global Peace Index (GPI), ranking 121 nations according to their relative states of peace. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) was commissioned to take the lead in developing the methodology underlying the index, and collecting the required data. The Global Peace Index is composed of 24 indicators. The index has been tested against a range of potential “drivers” or determinants of peace. The 24 indicators of the existence or absence of peace have been divided into three thematic categories. The indicators were selected as being the best available datasets that reflect the incidence or absence of peace. The second stated aim and intention is to use the underlying data and results from the Index to launch an investigation into the relative importance of a range of potential determinants or “drivers” that may influence the creation and facilitation of the emergence of peaceful societies, both internally and externally (1). The first category focuses on measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict over the last five years (2000-2005). The second on measures of societal safety and security, while the third and final category focuses on measures of militarisation.
Few encouraging signs emerged in 2006 to suggest the world is on a path to greater peace and stability. Another equally important development was the release of the third annual Failed States Index at the start of July 2007 by Foreign Policy Magazine and the Fund for Peace. The salient issue the report stresses is that weak and failed states continue to pose a grave threat to international peace and security. The Index utilises 12 social, economic, political and military indicators, ranking 177 states in order of their vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal deterioration (2).
Africa: Winning the peace?
The most important question that naturally stems from reviewing these indexes is whether Africa is winning the peace or finds itself engaged in a losing battle to end civil strife, war, violent conflict and state failure. In terms of the overall ranking of the Global Peace Index only six African countries managed to feature in the top 50. These are: Tunisia, ranked 39th (in North Africa), Ghana, ranked 40th (in West Africa), Madagascar, ranked 41st (in Southern Africa), Botswana, ranked 42nd (also in Southern Africa), Morocco, ranked 48th (in North Africa) and Mozambique, ranked 50th (in Southern Africa).
Other African countries in the lower end of the rankings include Zambia (53rd), Gabon (56th), Tanzania (57th), Namibia (64th), Senegal (65th), Malawi (68th), Equatorial Guinea (71st), Cameroon (76th), Kenya (91st), South Africa (99th), Ethiopia (103rd), Uganda (104th), and Zimbabwe (106th).
Of greater concern is the presence of at least 4 African countries on the list of ten countries least at peace in the world. Angola, ranked 112th continues to be plagued by domestic conflict in the oil-rich enclave of Cabinda, while political instability persistently threatens the country’s future, despite the MPLA’s dominance since its victory in the civil war. Côte d’Ivoire, ranked 113th continues to face political uncertainty and threats to its internal security. Although a peace accord was signed in 2003, the country remains divided into two, with the north controlled by the former rebels and the south under Government control. Nigeria, ranked 117th continues to be plagued by internal unrest, political instability and endemic poverty. The country has also suffered sporadic outbreaks of ethno-religious violence and continued violence in the Niger Delta, including attacks on oil installations continue to threaten the country’s political and economic future. Sudan, ranked 120th is one of Africa’s least peaceful and greatly troubled countries. The deepening humanitarian crisis in Darfur threatens the country’s stability. Although a peace agreement in 2005 ended 21 years of war between the north and south of the country and enabled the formation of a Government of National Unity with a referendum on unity in 2011, some of the country’s opposition groups remain outside of the new Government.
For the second year in a row, Sudan also tops the rankings on the Failed States Index as the state most at risk of failure. The primary cause of its instability, violence in the country’s western region of Darfur, is as well known as it is tragic. At least 200,000 people - and perhaps as many as 400,000 - have been killed in the past four years by janjaweed militias armed by the Government, and 2 to 3 million people have fled their torched villages for squalid camps as the violence has spilled into the Central African Republic and Chad. These countries were hardly pictures of stability prior to the influx of refugees and rebels across their borders; the Central African Republic plays host to a modern-day slave trade, and rebels attacked Chad’s capital in April 2006 in a failed coup attempt. But the spill over effects from Sudan has a great deal to do with the countries’ tumble in the rankings, demonstrating that the dangers of failing states often bleed across borders. That is especially worrying for a few select regions. This year, eight of the world’s 10 most vulnerable states are in sub-Saharan Africa, up from six last year and seven in 2005. They include Somalia, ranked 3rd (behind Iraq ranked 2nd), Zimbabwe, ranked 4th, Chad, ranked 5th, Ivory Coast, ranked 6th, Democratic Republic of Congo, ranked 7th, Guinea, ranked 9th and Central African Republic, ranked 10th (3).
The violence in Darfur has created the most extreme ripple effect. The Sudanese Government has been accused of backing rebel groups in both Chad and the Central African Republic, creating hundreds of thousands of additional refugees. Vast camps throughout the region are vulnerable to the violent, marauding militias that have terrorised Darfur for the past four years. Three of the five worst performing states - Chad, Sudan, and Zimbabwe - have leaders who have been in power for more than 15 years. Somalia, hostage to factional fighting between warlords for more than 15 years, convulsed with violence in 2006, when short-lived stability installed by the Union of Islamic Courts was upended by the invasion of Ethiopian troops in favour of an interim government. Over the years, refugees from the fighting have spilled into Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Kenya, destabilising a large portion of the Horn of Africa.
For much of Africa the path to peace has been paved with many good intentions, but littered with far too many broken promises. All these negative aspects could seriously endanger the continent’s proposed renewal, economic recovery and investor confidence, which in turn could endanger programmes such as the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), which according to many analysts has already faltered in achieving its objectives. The need to simultaneously address proximate and structural causes of conflict in Africa is therefore of the utmost importance in order to ensure that peace and stability can be achieved in the long-term.
(1) Global Peace Index 2007, Methodology, Results and Findings, Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 31 May 2007, http://www.eiu.com
(2)Foreign Policy Magazine, The Failed States Index 2007, Foreign Policy Magazine and The Fund for Peace, July/August 2007, http://www.foreignpolicy.com
(3) For a full list of the rankings visit Foreign Policy Magazine’s website at http://www.foreignpolicy.com and The Fund for Peace website at http://www.fundforpeace.org