The Chadian Crisis: Fomenting a New Regional Catastrophe?
By GERRIE SWART (1)
The crisis in Chad continues to threaten peace in the volatile region that has already been plagued by brutal violence and excessive conflict as a result of the Darfur crisis and Chad’s own internal instability. Despite various attempts to secure a peaceful and negotiated solution to the crisis, little headway has been made.
Since early 2000, armed opposition movements have waged low-intensity warfare against the Chadian government. In 2004 President Idriss Deby altered the Chadian constitution, removing the presidential two-term limit, thus enabling him to be re-elected for a third term in 2006.
On 31 January 2008, armed opposition groups launched a major offensive on the capital N'Djamena. Heavy fighting lasted three days. Hundreds of civilian casualties have been reported and thousands of people fled to neighbouring Cameroon. On 14 February, President Deby declared a state of emergency all over the country. This state of emergency gives the governors of provinces the power to take measures to restrict freedom of movement and assembly, to control private and state press and radio media, and to impose a curfew. The closest the rebels had previously come to seizing control of the capital and the country was in April 2006.
On 29 February 2008 the state of emergency was extended by a further 15 days - a sign that the Government of President Idriss Deby expects further rebel onslaughts against state authority.
The National Assembly authorised President Idriss Deby's government to extend the exceptional powers, assumed on February 14 to tighten security across the central African country after the rebel assault, in which at least 400 civilians were killed.
The continuing crisis in Chad has been attributed to the spill-over effects of the conflict and crisis in Darfur. Yet, as many analysts point out, the crisis and volatility in Chad has equally been responsible for the crisis being witnessed in Darfur today. This has led to the emergence of a ‘regional conflict complex’ that threatens to engulf this region into yet another devastating African conflict of the magnitude witnessed in the DRC and the indefinite nature as witnessed in the protracted crisis in Somalia.
The continuing threat of internal political instability in Chad also threatens the prospects of the country securing sustainable peace, stability and security in the long-term. The greatest threat to Chad’s political future is the continuing sidelining of the country’s political opposition forces.
The prospects for Chad in the immediate future are dire indeed. The worst outlook is a massacre of the civilian opposition followed by a battle for N'djamena which causes immense destruction, displacement and bloodshed, and creates a new vortex of instability in Africa. The greatest threat that remains is that the rebel forces continue in their quest to dominate and seize power. This is likely not to be their last attempt and the prospect of ousting President Deby from power will remain the driving force behind this concerted campaign. As the casualties mount so too does the growing sense of trepidation and fear that Chad is facing major conflict, instability and crisis as yet another African country that has fallen prey to the ravages of war.
(1) Gerrie Swart is Head Researcher: Conflict & Terrorism Unit. He is also a lecturer in the Department of Political Sciences, University of South Africa, and a Research Associate with the Centre for International Political Studies, University of Pretoria (gerrie.swart@consultancyafrica.com).
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