From Climate Change to Climate Rage: Africa’s New Security Threat
By GERRIE SWART (1)
While terrorism has occupied much of the international security agenda over the past seven years, a major threat has been simmering beneath, looming ominously in the background, quite literally with vast repercussions and global implications.
Climate change has arguably become one of the gravest environmental challenges facing the international community. Yet of greater concern are the unintended (yet surely expected) consequences that are now emerging as a result thereof. Climate change has entered the realm of insecurity that is likely to grip nations across the globe, but more devastatingly so in Africa.
Of greatest concern is the emergence of climate rage - the result of nations growing increasingly restless, threatened by the devastating effects of climate change and facing the prospects of having to fight for survival on a planet that is increasingly coming to resemble one vast pressure cooker.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has already sounded warnings that climate change in Africa could leave an additional 250 million people short of water by 2020, spurring conflicts and threatening stability. The competition for scare natural resources has already led to conflict in Africa on frequent occasions (such as the conflicts witnessed in the DRC, Liberia and Sierra Leone over control of valuable mineral resources), and the realisation that even the most basic of commodities, essential for survival such as food and water is growing ever scarcer is likely to have untold effects on a continent that has already struggled for decades to effectively feed itself. With this sobering worst-case scenario being realised, Africa is likely to face many more ‘Darfurs’, possibly even more devastating than before.
Climate change is undoubtedly going to exacerbate the scramble for increasingly scare sources of energy and the battle is likely to be most intense on the African continent. The mere threat posed by the prospect of ever-increasing environmental refugees, attempting to flee the ravages of climate change on the African continent to other parts of the world, each with their own impacts to mitigate, is almost impossible to fathom.
The burgeoning food and fuel prices are likely to create even greater havoc and threats to global security, particularly as the threat is no longer simply facing Africa, but indeed is a growing threat to nations across the globe. Escalating food prices have already led to riots and protests in countries such as Egypt, Mauritania, Cote d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Senegal and Mozambique. The likelihood of violence amongst even more vulnerable nations is also likely to increase and could destabilise many African governments who already had reneged on promises to feed the masses.
The worst-case scenario that is already unfolding is potentially even worse than expected, as countries around the world have hugely underestimated the potential conflicts stemming from climate change, according to the latest report from Britain's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) "Delivering Climate Security: International Security Responses to a Climate-Changed World". The Whitehall Paper in particular stresses that the response to climate change security threats had been "slow and inadequate" and to rectify it, spending is needed to surge to levels comparable to sums spent on counter-terrorism. The report furthermore warns that, "If climate change is not slowed and critical environmental thresholds are exceeded, then it will become a primary driver of conflicts between and within states."
The prospects that climate change could spark a century long global war has to be taken as a sign that climate rage is likely to pose major challenges to architects of national security policy, particularly amongst leaders on the African continent, who at present appear ill-equipped to respond to the crisis.
While the international community has witnessed the so-called “guns versus butter” debate for decades, this debate is likely to assume a far more complex character than ever imagined, with evidence already appearing that potential conflict appears more and more possible through an increasingly disillusioned populace.
(1) Gerrie Swart is Head Researcher: Conflict & Terrorism Unit. He is also a lecturer in the Department of Political Sciences, University of South Africa, and a Research Associate with the Centre for International Political Studies, University of Pretoria (gerrie.swart@consultancyafrica.com).
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