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Mauritius: Presidential Elections - Setting the stage for 2010
On 13 May 2008 the Mauritian President for the next five years will be elected by Parliament on a motion by the Prime Minister (PM). The political system of Mauritius is based largely on the British model in which the executive authority lies with the PM., and political power resides in Parliament. The Mauritian President acts as Chief of State, a largely ceremonial position. For these reasons, a more important election to watch is the national assembly elections to be held in July 2010. Although the Presidential election itself is not big news, it will nevertheless prove interesting for the broader themes in Mauritian politics that it highlights in the run-up to 2010.
SHIFTING ALLIANCES
Historically, Mauritian politics have been characterised by constantly shifting alliances. In the midst of this fluidity, the current president, Sir Anerood Jugnauth, has served as a figure of continuity. Jugnauth, a veteran of Mauritian politics, served as prime minister from 1982 to 1995 during which time Mauritius transformed itself from a low-income to a middle-income country. Then, following an electoral sweep to power by a coalition consisting of Jugnauth’s party (the Mouvement Socialiste Militant, MSM) and that of a Mr. Bérenger (the Mouvement Militant Mauricien, MMM) he served again from 2000 to 2003. In 2003 - and in line with their electoral pact - Jugnauth passed the executive leadership position of the country to Bérenger. In the same year Jugnauth passed the leadership of the MSM to his son and was elected and sworn in as President.
2-weeks in Zimbabwe: A story of hope, disappointment and uncertainty
In terms of the legislative elections, indications are that, for the first time in 28 years, the ruling Zanu-PF has lost its Parliamentary majority. The former liberation movement has also lost its stronghold in the rural areas where it has always held dominance. Zanu-PF has now asked for a recount of 23 of the 210 constituencies, most of which were won by the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). A reversal in only 9 of the constituencies would be sufficient to undo the slim majority won by the MDC.
Despite reports in the private media that the Zimbabwean High Court ordered the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission (ZEC) not to recount the results it appears that the recount is going ahead. Indications are that it might even be a full recount of all election results. While the ruling party claims it has reasons to believe that there were irregularities in the first count, the opposition accuses Zanu-PF of buying time to rig the results.
In the presidential vote the MDC pre-emptively claimed victory for their candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai (2). According to Zanu-PF neither Mugabe nor Tsvangirai won a clear majority. They are preparing for a run-off election. After almost two weeks of defending their original claim and refusing to take part in a run-off, the MDC recently shifted tact and announced that it would take part in a run-off election, but only if such an election was monitored by international observers. This came after the High Court ruled against the MDC’s request for the immediate release of the results by the electoral commission. Following this ruling, the MDC also called for a nation-wide strike to push for the release of the results. This strike was subsequently declared unlawful, with the ruling party claiming that it would crack down on any illegal acts that aim to disturb the peace.
The Aftermath of the Kenyan Elections - Focus on the Economy
This violence, sparked by allegations of electoral fraud during the December elections, had been predicted by many observers. However, its extent and intensity was not. The violence displaced several hundred thousand people and left over 1,000 dead. Some parts of the country remain dangerous, especially for members of certain ethnic groups. The impact on the economy has been significant. Tourism, possibly Kenya's most important industry, has suffered a significant drop. The industry has seen a reduction in revenue of as much as 80% as many tourists have cancelled plans to visit a country seen to be struggling with widespread violence. Other sectors of the economy have been hit with shortages of basic goods and transport problems. Many small businesses have been directly affected by the violence. During the worst of the violence, shops and offices were attacked and burnt, and staff members did not arrive for work. Since then, prices on basic goods have risen sharply, and many poor families are struggling to afford necessities such as bread.
These are only a few of the problems facing the coalition government. The irony is that all of the presidential candidates promised to address poverty and improve economic growth. The actions of their various supporters in the aftermath of the elections appear to have made this task far harder. Under Kibaki's 2002 - 2007 presidency, Kenya enjoyed a respectable 6% economic growth rate, and this was expected to continue after the elections. However, following the recent violence and uncertainty, Kenya would be lucky to see a fraction of this economic growth during 2008.
Pre-election review: Kenya
Although this is both a Parliamentary and Presidential election, developments have seen the election come down to little more than a contest between the main contenders for the presidency and the weak coalitions that they lead. The race for the presidency is no longer a shoe-in for the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, and has now become a close race between him and a former ally, Raila Odinga, The main parties contesting the Parliamentary elections, notably Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PANU) and Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), are hastily constructed alliances of smaller parties, and neither coalition has a clear election platform. Trailing a distant third in opinion polls is Kalonzo Musyoka, who represents a weakened breakaway faction of the ODM, ODM-Kenya.
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| Consultancy Africa Intelligence - Election Review - Kenya - 19 December 2007.pdf | 147.36 KB |
| Consultancy Africa Intelligence - Post-Election Review - Zimbabwe - 16 April 2008.pdf | 116.62 KB |
