On 27 December 2007, Kenya will be holding Parliamentary and Presidential elections. The elections mark an important point for Kenya, largely as an opportunity to entrench multi-party democracy in a country that has a long history of one-party rule. It may also see a new president, and a smooth transition of power that would strengthen Kenya’s role as a model of democracy in East Africa. However, hopes that these elections would be free from the violence that marred the 2002 general election and a referendum on the constitution in 2005 have been dashed, and the run-up to these elections has been characterised by increasing ethnic tensions and political manoeuvring.

Although this is both a Parliamentary and Presidential election, developments have seen the election come down to little more than a contest between the main contenders for the presidency and the weak coalitions that they lead. The race for the presidency is no longer a shoe-in for the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki, and has now become a close race between him and a former ally, Raila Odinga, The main parties contesting the Parliamentary elections, notably Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PANU) and Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), are hastily constructed alliances of smaller parties, and neither coalition has a clear election platform. Trailing a distant third in opinion polls is Kalonzo Musyoka, who represents a weakened breakaway faction of the ODM, ODM-Kenya.

Up until September Kibaki had a comfortable lead in opinion polls to win re-election. He has drawn a great deal on his successes in developing the economy, which has seen an average 6% growth during his tenure, as compared to the moribund 2% annual growth seen during Daniel arap Moi’s presidency. Kibaki has also focused on improving education, and has had some success in developing primary education in Kenya. However, his failures in combating corruption and ethnic tensions - issues that he promised to address during his 2002 election campaign - have come back to haunt him. Crime has also increased during his time in office, and this has become a major issue in Kenya.

Kibaki’s failures have been exploited by his rivals. Odinga has used this to his advantage, and has vowed to fight corruption and improve on Kibaki’s economic successes. Since late-September 2007 he has managed to overtake Kibaki in opinion polls, although this lead has not been significant. Odinga’s election platform is based on fighting poverty, illiteracy and unemployment. At the moment he appears to be the strongest candidate for winning the presidency.

Musyoka was a strong contender for the presidency in the early stages of the election. However, at the moment he appears to be the weakest contender. His election programme focuses on ensuring economic growth, reducing poverty, increasing security (especially regional security), enacting a new constitution, and improving education and healthcare. But at this stage he would appear to be the candidate that will have the least impact on the election.

The main issues that all three candidates have included in their campaigns are improving economic growth and education. However, these are not the main issues at the forefront of many Kenyans’ minds. Instead crime, corruption and growing ethnic tensions are what really matter. Of these, corruption and ethnic tensions are two issues that may come to dominate these elections. Kibaki has failed to address corruption in any meaningful way, and his tenure has been wracked by several corruption scandals. This is despite the fact that he was elected on promises of eradicating corruption.

At the same time the ethnicity of the various candidates has now become an important factor in the elections. Kibaki will be a strong contender for the presidency just from the support of the large Kikuyu community, while Odinga has significant support from his Luo tribe, and Musyoka will have the backing of the Kamba tribe. The Kikuyu have a history of dominating Kenyan politics, as former president Jomo Kenyatta came from this tribe, and their large numbers will come into play during the presidential vote. This is a cause for concern, as the influence of tribalism in Kenyan politics may lead to further unequal distribution of power and wealth, or at least the perception of this, and will open the door for renewed ethnic tensions and violence.

THE WEAKNESS OF MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY AND THE RESURGENCE OF TIBALISM

Although this will be both a Parliamentary and Presidential election, the weakness of the current parties, which are little more than loose coalitions and alliances of convenience, means that the significant vote will be for the presidency. None of the parties currently have a coherent policy programme, and act (and are treated) as little more than election vehicles for the various presidential candidates. There are over 140 political parties in Kenya, but only three (PANU, ODM and ODM-Kenya) are currently vying for any significant stake in Parliament. In many cases even the supporters of the various presidential candidates have trouble remembering the new names of their parties. During November, politicians seeking parliamentary seats and parliamentarians seeking re-election jumped from party to party to secure a nomination. In some cases losing candidates were still awarded the nomination, while in others losing candidates joined smaller parties to secure a nomination for Parliament. Party loyalty appears to have taken a back seat to personal gain.

The weakness of the parties means two things. Firstly, it is the policy programmes of the various presidential candidates that will determine the country’s political direction and environment for the next five years. Secondly, ethnic politics and loyalties will now become a major factor in the elections, an issue that raises the risk of ethnic tension as well as violence. Ethnic tensions have plagued Kenya’s post-independence history, and may now again be a major factor in determining who wins these elections and how power and influence in Kenya will be distributed in the near future.

IMPLICATION FOR THE BUSINESS AND INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT

There is likely to be little change in the business and investment environment for the short-term, regardless of who wins this election. All the major candidates, and their parties, are intent on improving economic growth. If Kibaki wins, he will likely continue his current policies, which have proven to be relatively successful. It is difficult to say whether Odinga (or even Musyoka) will be any more successful than Kibaki. However, what is clear is that economic growth is unlikely to exceed the 6% that Kibaki has achieved, even though the opposition candidates have been promising growth rates of up to 10%.

The reasons for this are simple: firstly, any new president, other than Kibaki, will be an unknown entity, and most foreign investors and international donors will likely wait to see what new policies - if any - will be put in place. Secondly, Kenya’s economic growth will continue to be hampered by infrastructure problems. Roads and telecommunications infrastructure, in particular, are in dire need of improvement. Infrastructure rehabilitation and development, especially in the tourism and transport sectors, are significant concerns for economic growth and foreign investment. Lastly, corruption remains a widespread and growing problem. Recent developments, especially with regards to the activities of politicians from across the political spectrum and the failures of Kibaki’s anti-corruption strategies, suggest that this will not easily be solved.

This election is also likely to be marred by further violence and the related increases in ethnic tensions. The role of ethnicity in Kenyan politics and society has been reduced somewhat in recent years, but this may become an important factor again after these elections. It may further add to problems with corruption, and may lead to a growth in patronage networks. Odinga and Musyoka have also promised to decentralise power in Kenya, and to reduce the powers of the president. Whether this actually occurs in the event that either of these two is voted into power is another question, but any move to decentralise power in an environment where tribalism and corruption are on the rise may lead to further problems in ensuring equal and effective infrastructure development and economic growth across the country.

OUTLOOK FOR THE ELECTIONS

As the elections approach, Kenya is reaching a crossroads in its history. On the one side is an opportunity to entrench multi-party democracy in a country only recently relieved of the burden of a one party system. Kibaki’s successes in improving economic growth and primary education over the past five years have clearly indicated the benefits that may come from changes in leadership. A smooth transition to a new Government, whether headed by Kibaki or someone new, may provide even more benefits. However, the resurgence of corruption and tribalism in Kenyan politics and the lack of any unified and coherent political parties with clear policies and election platforms are sources of concern. The underhanded dealings and horsetrading that characterised the party nominations for parliamentary positions in November lead to violent clashes and a loss of trust for the political system among many ordinary Kenyans. These would seem to indicate a failure in the party system in Kenya, and has opened the door for a retreat to ethnic-based politics. This is problem that has lead to widespread violence in the past, and which may come to characterise the upcoming elections.

(1) Thomas Bevan is an Analyst in Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Election Unit. He is also a freelance writer (officesa@consultancyafrica.com)