On 13 May 2008 the Mauritian President for the next five years will be elected by Parliament on a motion by the Prime Minister (PM). The political system of Mauritius is based largely on the British model in which the executive authority lies with the PM., and political power resides in Parliament. The Mauritian President acts as Chief of State, a largely ceremonial position. For these reasons, a more important election to watch is the national assembly elections to be held in July 2010. Although the Presidential election itself is not big news, it will nevertheless prove interesting for the broader themes in Mauritian politics that it highlights in the run-up to 2010.

Historically, Mauritian politics have been characterised by constantly shifting alliances. In the midst of this fluidity, the current president, Sir Anerood Jugnauth, has served as a figure of continuity. Jugnauth, a veteran of Mauritian politics, served as prime minister from 1982 to 1995 during which time Mauritius transformed itself from a low-income to a middle-income country. Then, following an electoral sweep to power by a coalition consisting of Jugnauth’s party (the Mouvement Socialiste Militant, MSM) and that of a Mr. Bérenger (the Mouvement Militant Mauricien, MMM) he served again from 2000 to 2003. In 2003 - and in line with their electoral pact - Jugnauth passed the executive leadership position of the country to Bérenger. In the same year Jugnauth passed the leadership of the MSM to his son and was elected and sworn in as President.

In the National Assembly elections of 2005 the MMM-MSM alliance lost power to the Alliance Sociale (AS), in part due to internal dissent on the part of the MMM-MSM alliance. Since 2005, the popularity of the AS government appears to have lessened, in particular following a controversial budget speech in 2006, in which the government shifted from the economic position of wealth distribution, which formed an essential part of the AS’s election platform, to a cost-cutting, but growth-oriented programme of reform. This shift has been sharply criticised by both the MMM and the MSM. It remains to be seen whether the two opposition parties will manage to patch up their strained relationship ahead of the 2010 polls, or whether entirely different alliances will form.

It is in the midst of this scenario that the presidential election will take place. Despite the role of the President being largely ceremonial, the symbolic power of such an office should not be understated. A president is both the face of a country and its foreign policy, and a symbolic point of reference domestically. Party politics aside, it could make sense for the PM to suggest Jugnauth for a second term. Jugnauth presided over a period of growth in the country’s past, which makes domestic associations with him largely positive. The government’s relatively pro-Western foreign policy, followed in conjunction with an economic policy heavily dependent on foreign investment, has scored Mauritius points in the West. Recently, however, there has been some strain in these relations, especially between that of Mauritius and the former colonial powers, France and the UK. Such ties seem to have weakened even as Mauritius is strengthening both cultural and economic ties with the emerging power, India. Although many have downplayed the role played by ethnicity, there are speculations that Bérenger’s white, Franco-Mauritian descent counted against him and hastened his exit from power. He was the first non-Hindu prime minister in a country in which people of Indian origin make up around 66% of the population. In such a context, a Hindu figure of stability and continuity might boost business confidence in the right places.

On the other hand, Jugnauth used to be the leader of the current opposition. Unless influential parties in the current ruling alliance are planning to form new and different alliances which would include in MSM in the run-up to 2010, a motion for the new President would most likely come from within one of the ruling parties. Also, despite Jugnauth’s general popularity, there have been criticisms levelled against him, particularly regarding a series of political comments against the island’s most famous freedom fighter. There are also indications that Jugnauth is grooming his son for a long-term career in politics. The possibility of a father-son president-prime minister relationship will be seen as a threat to others in the ruling alliance who might have prime ministerial ambitions.

Whoever the next President is, it should not have a major impact on Mauritius’ political economic stability. As mentioned earlier, the President, whose role is largely that of a non-political, constitutional figurehead, is chosen indirectly by the PM and the Parliament. Moreover, Mauritius has a history of free-and-fair elections, and despite shifting alliances, also of the kind of political economic stability favoured by foreign investors. Nevertheless, the election of the president in the run-up to the National Assembly elections should prove interesting. Should Jugnauth be chosen, it could signal a willingness on the part of some ruling parties to form a new coalition which includes the MSM ahead of the 2010 elections. At this stage of a process that is not open to direct public participation, it is not possible to speculate on other candidates. More comments and implications will follow in the post-election piece.

(1) Mari-Lise Du Preez is a researcher in Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Election Unit. Mari-Lise is also a lecturer in the Department of Political Sciences at the University of South Africa. (UNISA) (officesa@consultancyafrica.com).