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Election Watch - Zimbabwe (Southern Africa)

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ELECTION WATCH - ZIMBABWE (SOUTHERN AFRICA)

Of elections, and farces

By Mari-Lise du Preez (1)

On 27 June Zimbabweans went to the polls in a widely condemned presidential run-off. The run-off election came after – according to official results – neither of the two main parties managed to secure the clear majority needed to ensure an outright victory for their candidate in the harmonised elections of 29 March. In the run-up to the run-off there were widespread calls to cancel the election, or at least to postpone it. The international community largely agreed that a free and fair run-off election was not possible in the highly volatile context marred by widespread reports of violence and intimidation. The elections lost all credibility when the leader of the MDC withdrew from the ballot at the last minute. Despite Morgan Tsvangirai’s withdrawal, the elections went ahead, with Zanu-PF’s Robert Mugabe as the only candidate. Following the election, Mugabe was sworn in as president, seemingly tightening his 28-year grip on power.

However, despite the apparent continuation of the status quo, things cannot go on as before. For one thing, Mugabe’s presidency is not recognised by many in the African and international community. Even if he were to remain as President, the fact remains that the MDC won the Parliament in the harmonised elections of 29 March. Both sides seem to acknowledge a need for dialogue, in principle. There is however disagreement on the outcome of a possible agreement. Overall, there is much uncertainty, with negotiations and mediation happening behind closed doors.

Proposals for transition

While there is some talk of a Kenya-style government of national unity (GNU) from the African camp, at the moment a transitional arrangement seems more likely. One of the biggest points of contention relates to whether Mugabe or Tsvangirai would ultimately occupy the top spot in Zimbabwe. By 7 July there were some reports that a SADC proposal for such a transitional government was given a qualified welcome by the MDC. According to an MDC source, “the important thing is that [the proposal] recognises the outcome of the March 29 election”. According to the reported proposal Mugabe would remain as Zimbabwe’s head of state, but hand real power to Tsvangirai as Prime Minister. Mugabe would then stay in place until a new constitution was negotiated and fresh elections held. Earlier Mugabe said that he will only enter into talks if he is recognised as President. He also demanded a removal of the West’s targeted sanctions. It is not yet clear whether the abovementioned proposal is acceptable to Mugabe and Zanu-PF. However, the proposal does provide a glimmer of hope for an agreement following fears that the MDC would refuse to take part in any mediation led by South African President Thabo Mbeki.

On Sunday 6 July Tsvangirai failed to turn up at the official presidential residence for a scheduled meeting between himself, Mugabe, Mbeki and Arthur Mutambara (the leader of the other MDC faction), citing the non-neutral venue as the reason. It is also well known that Tsvangirai is generally weary of Mbeki’s role as SADC appointed mediator. The parties are expected to resume negotiations later in the week, following the G8 Summit held in Japan. Mbeki would probably be joined in his role as mediator by African Union Commission chair Jean Ping. There is hope for swift progress.

Africa, the West and the world

The pressure is on, with the G8 considering increasing sanctions even as Mugabe is demanding that current sanctions be lifted. In the absence of military intervention – which still seems highly unlikely – options facing those outside of Zimbabwe seem to involve increasing diplomatic pressure in the form of sanctions and/or supporting the negotiations. The reactions of the rest of the world largely see a continuation of the “West and Africa” discourse. At a recent meeting between the G8 and seven African heads of state the African leaders resisted pressure for sanctions from the US and Europe. As mentioned above, Africa still sees scope for African diplomacy to lead to some form of negotiated settlement.

Ending the violence

The most pressing motivation for a speedy resolution of the crisis relates to the hardship faced by the Zimbabwean population. Economic deprivation is leading to a reliance on subsistence living as consumer prices have doubled every month this year and in some cases every week. In addition, there are reports of continued violence. On the one hand it is hoped that a resolution of the crisis would end the violence, while on the other violence is posing one of the biggest threats to such a resolution. Mbeki warned that Zimbabwe could descend into civil war if pressure for tougher sanctions against the Mugabe regime is increased. Mugabe’s biographer Heidi Holland also warned that Mugabe would retaliate with more violence if “too much pressure was exerted on him”.

Meanwhile, according to Mutambara, Zimbabweans have two options: either an armed struggle to remove Mugabe from power or an all-inclusive dialogue leading to a political settlement. While all eyes are on Mugabe and Tsvangirai, the balance of power in such a settlement could lie with smaller players such as Mutambara. If a political settlement is to be reached, all parties will have to be included. At the meeting held at the presidential residence on 6 July, Mugabe was seen fraternising with Mutambara. Tsvangirai and Mutambara have had a bumpy partnership since before the March elections. The search for allies appears to be on.

Clearly, a resolution of the crisis in Zimbabwe is needed as soon as possible. At the same time it is a situation that, for the sake of ordinary Zimbabweans, has to be handled skilfully and with great care.

(1) Mari-Lise Du Preez is a researcher in Consultancy Africa Intelligence’s Election Unit. Mari-Lise is also a lecturer in the Department of Political Sciences at the University of South Africa. (UNISA) (officesa@consultancyafrica.com).

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