Only 8 months after the end of the political transition, there are new rumours of war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Emanating from the very troubled provinces of the Kivus, the two provinces (north and south Kivus) are the epicentre of the Congolese conflict. It is in this area bordering Rwanda, where the rebellion started in 1996, and ethnic tensions between the Congolese Tutsis and other tribes remain a permanent feature.

For three months, the tension has consistently increased due to actions of armed groups in the region. On the one hand, there have been repeated village attacks by the Forces Démocratiques pour la Libération du Rwanda (FDLR) (1). In addition, the dissident and pro-Tutsi colonel, Laurent Nkunda (2), has increased his military capacity in his stronghold in Masisi; and lastly, on a far more worrying level, targeted assassinations of local well-known characters are re-starting, including on:

May 18: The head of the National Intelligence Agency in Beni (North Kivu) was shot dead;

June 13: Serge Mahesh, a well-known journalist working for the UN, Okapi, was shot dead in Bukavu (South Kivu), just before meeting a group of European ambassadors;

July 5: Kambale Kisoni, an important Nande (3) businessman who was blacklisted by the UN because of his implications in gold smuggling, was shot dead in his office by killers from neighbouring countries; and

July 11: The dead body of the Provincial Secretary of the Rassemblement Démocratique pour le Congo (RCD, a pro-Tutsi organisation) was found in Goma. He was beaten to death.

This series of targeted assassinations and villages attacks have caused massive population displacements. The UN estimates that there are now 700,000 internally displaced persons in the Kivus and that a humanitarian crisis is likely to happen if the trend continues.

The Government is responding to this regional emergency situation by increasing its military capacity in the Kivus (the 8th and 15th brigades are presently being deployed to Goma and the Mai Mai warriors are receiving supplies). While the Congolese army is notoriously very weak and disorganised, the provincial military commander in North Kivu, General Vainqueur Mayala, has stated that he is able to fix the security situation in just five days if he is ordered to do so! Given the fact that the Kivus are an electoral Kabila stronghold (during the November 2006 election, the Kivus voted massively for Kabila as he promised the return of peace and security), the Government feels the pressure to act against the FDLR and the dissident troops. The Kivus military reinforcement has already deteriorated the relationship between Kinshasa and Kigali, with the Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs recently postponing his official visit to Kinshasa that was supposed to pave the way for the re-establishment of diplomatic relationships between the two countries.

As a result, the UN Security Council as well as the European Union have expressed their deep concerns about the deterioration of the situation. In July 2007, Karel de Gutch, Belgian Minister for Foreign Affairs, and Louis Michel, European "Commissaire" for Development in the EU, visited Kinshasa and Kigali as an attempt at mediating between the two opponents.

Notes:

(1) The FDLR comprises Hutus that were implicated in the 1994 Rwanda genocide. Following this, they retreated to the Kivus and have yet to be disarmed.
(2) Laurent Nkunda is a dissident Congolese Tutsi colonel who runs the 81st and 83rd brigades consisting of Congolese Tutsis. In 2004, Nkunda came close to taking over the capital of South Kivu, Bukavu and was prevented from capturing Goma by UN peacekeepers in December 2006. He is regarded as the most serious military threat in the Kivus.
(3) The Nandes are the main tribe in North Kivu and strongly opposed to the Congolese Tutsis.