Zimbabwe’s Election Catastrophe - Victors, Vanquished, Vengeance and Violence
The discussion of the current political catastrophe (no longer to be considered just a mere crisis) in Zimbabwe by African states at one of the highest decision-making bodies at the United Nations - the UN Security Council - was applauded when member states of the African Union, under the stewardship of South Africa as current President of the Security Council adopted a resolution calling upon both President Robert Mugabe and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai to resolve the political crisis within 30 days, cease all forms of political violence and intimidation targeting Zimbabwean citizens, and abide by the outcome of the 2008 election results.
Alas!
The Security Council-African Union Summit on 16 April 2008 did not translate into any concrete resolutions and strong political resolve to address one of Southern Africa’s gravest crises, arguably the worst since the heyday of Apartheid South Africa’s rule and the subsequent violence, political repression and anarchy that nearly ruined that country.
Instead this vital summit chose to regurgitate the same stale rhetoric on ways in which the African Union and UN Security Council could work together. In this regard yet another opportunity has been missed to translate the usual rhetoric echoed in the hallowed halls of world peace into concrete means and action through which these bodies could have shown actual progress in jointly addressing an actual political apocalypse in the making! While this assessment appears to be melodramatic, one only needs to mention Darfur, Ivory Coast, Somalia, Chad and of course the Democratic Republic of Congo and now also Kenya to illustrate the perils of inaction and of acting too late to avert major political crises.
South African President Thabo Mbeki, who chaired the particular summit, has insisted that the situation in Zimbabwe is not a crisis and can be resolved through the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), which has however avoided adopting a tough political stance. The South African President has also clarified his position stating that he referred to the fact that no crisis existed in Zimbabwe insofar its elections were concerned.
However, 19 days after the polls, Zimbabwe is virtually caught in a vast political vacuum; the outcomes of the presidential poll remain akin to that of a highly-guarded state secret - one that is likely to remain so for many more weeks to come. Whoever emerges victorious in the election will undoubtedly face major opposition, insurrection and revolt.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed his dissatisfaction with the delay in releasing the election results and warned of the serious consequences the creation of further political instability can produce. The Secretary-General also called upon swift and decisive action on the part of SADC to resolve the post-election crisis in this regard.
Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete, current Chairperson of the AU expressed his satisfaction with the role being played by SADC in seeking a solution to the Zimbabwean impasse, while Senegal’s Foreign Minister called for a more prudent implementation of preventive diplomacy to resolve crises such as being witnessed in Zimbabwe at present. No other African leaders present, including President Mbeki have voiced concern over the current situation in Zimbabwe, which should have formed a critical part of the agenda. Instead South Africa chose to focus the discussion on peacekeeping operations in Africa - an admirable issue to discuss and one where there has also been very little commendable progress either. Yet given the stated intention of seeking African solutions to African problems, the deafening silence on concrete solutions, ready to be implemented to address Zimbabwe’s lingering political problems are rather distressing.
The Looming Political Apocalypse
Zimbabwe’s post-election political impasse is degenerating into justifying the use of political violence on a large-scale yet again. In this context four MDC members have allegedly been slain by ZANU-PF supporters in acts of politically-motivated violence. The independent Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights reported that nearly 157 people had been treated between the elections on March 29 and April 14 with injuries clearly stemming from organised violence and torture. (2) The abhorrent guerrilla-style warfare tactics employed by the country’s war veterans in 2000 has also yet again been witnessed on a large scale. More than 130 white farmers have been driven off their land by supporters of Mugabe, and about 30 had not able to return to their farms according to the Commercial Farmers’ Union.
Amidst the political violence being inflicted upon the country’s citizens, they are also facing untold socio-economic hardship and the prospects of looming famine and grave uncertainty as to the origins of their next pay check and meal. This unavoidably warrants the next question:
Why is Zimbabwe purchasing arms in the midst of a catastrophic economic collapse compounded by the mass starvation of its citizens?
As recent reports have suggested, China has secretly shipped tens of thousands of small arms to the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, raising fears the consignment has been brought in to crush any attempts to unseat Robert Mugabe from power. (3)
The consignment has apparently cost the regime millions of United States dollars and was cleared by customs, while docked at Durban harbour in a Chinese registered vessel, An Yue Juang. According to unconfirmed sources it includes 3 million rounds of ammunition for AK47 rifles, the standard assault weapon for the country’s defence forces. There were also 1,500 rocket propelled grenades, a support weapon for the infantry, plus 3,500 mortar bombs. International sanctions imposed by Western countries against Zimbabwe include a ban on weapons sales to the country. In February 2008 a report adopted by the foreign affairs commission of the European Parliament urged the European Union to put pressure on China to stop delivering weapons to African countries, naming Zimbabwe in particular.
It is clear that SADC-brokered talks have had regrettably very little impact in achieving the much-desired political unity and harmony between ZANU-PF and the MDC. The prospects of an untarnished run-off election are also increasingly fading as are the prospects that international observers will be able to play any part in them.
In a country that already shows the signs of being a de facto failed state, the most critical, unanswered question that remains is whether Zimbabwe’s future political and socio-economic trajectory will be determined by the ballot, or more ominously by the bullet?
NOTES:
(1) Gerrie Swart is Head Researcher: Conflict & Terrorism Unit. He is also a lecturer in the Department of Political Sciences, University of South Africa, and a Research Associate with the Centre for International Political Studies, University of Pretoria (gerrie.swart@consultancyafrica.com).
(2) Zim doctors: More than 150 beaten in post-poll violence, Mail & Guardian, 16 April 2008, http://www.mg.co.za
(3) Tichaona Sibanda, China Ships Arms of War to Country, SW Radio Africa (London). 16 April 2008
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